Survey Says…
Two new polls in the California governor’s race are generating headlines today — one from UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center in partnership with Politico, and another from Emerson College.
The topline numbers are interesting. But as I explain in the video above, there are also several important caveats that should give observers pause before reading too much into them.
Among the issues worth noting are whether one survey used registered voters rather than likely June primary voters, questions raised about the role of AI in polling technology, and the fact that neither poll appears to have included ballot designations, which can significantly influence voter behavior in California’s low-information primaries.
I also compare the new Emerson poll to last month's survey and highlight one surprising number: the share of undecided voters has actually increased.
Finally, I pivot to a new national NBC News survey that shows both Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris underwater with the national electorate.
Watch the video for a quick breakdown of what these polls do — and do not — tell us right now.
You can watch this on YouTube here or listen to the podcast here (or on your favorite podcasting app!).
Emerson College Survey:
Politico:
Decision Desk:
Links:
Politico: Poll: Hilton’s rise could spare Dems from disaster in California gov’s race - LINK
Emerson College Polling: California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Takes Lead in Governor Primary, 25% undecided; Election for LA Mayor Wide Open - LINK
And from Decision Desk:
