IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE VIEWING THE EPISODE ABOVE, IT IS ALSO DOWN BELOW AS AN EMBEDDED YOUTUBE VIDEO
This morning I was joined by Mariel Garza of the Golden State Report for the first-ever joint Substack Live between our publications.
Mariel is a longtime California opinion journalist and former editorial board member at the Los Angeles Daily News, Southern California News Group, The Sacramento Bee, and Los Angeles Times. She now helps lead the Golden State Report, a new effort to reinvigorate serious public debate about Los Angeles and California.
Mariel and I come from different ends of California’s political spectrum, but we share a commitment to serious discussion and honest analysis. With ballots still being counted across the state, we spent nearly an hour breaking down what happened on Election Day, what has changed since then, and what it all means as we head toward November.
One of the biggest topics was the Los Angeles mayor’s race, where Nithya Raman has now overtaken Spencer Pratt for second place and appears headed for a runoff against incumbent Karen Bass. We discussed why that shift was not entirely surprising, what the late-count vote is telling us, and why Bass remains vulnerable despite finishing first.
We also spent considerable time discussing California’s election system, including the state’s lengthy vote-counting process, universal vote-by-mail system, and a pending Supreme Court case that could force major changes to how California conducts elections.
The governor’s race was another major focus. We examined why Steve Hilton successfully consolidated Republican support, why Tom Steyer appears unlikely to make the runoff despite spending enormous sums, and whether Xavier Becerra now enters the general election as the clear favorite.
Along the way, we discussed Kevin Kiley’s independent candidacy, Proposition 14 and California’s top-two primary system, the Marie Alvarado-Gil race, and the broader question of whether California voters are becoming increasingly frustrated with the status quo.
Most importantly, this wasn’t a shouting match. It was a conversation between two people who often disagree but believe voters deserve thoughtful analysis rather than partisan talking points.
If you’re interested in California politics, election analysis, and where the state may be headed next, I think you’ll find this discussion worthwhile.
CHAPTERS
0:00 — Introductions: Two different political perspectives
4:00 — Nithya Raman passes Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayor’s race
10:00 — Why Karen Bass is facing voter dissatisfaction
17:00 — California’s election system and the late vote debate
21:00 — The Supreme Court case that could change California elections
25:00 — Why late ballots are breaking heavily toward Raman
28:00 — Kevin Kiley’s independent strategy
33:00 — Is Tom Steyer officially out of contention?
35:00 — How Republicans consolidated behind Steve Hilton
36:00 — The fascinating Marie Alvarado-Gil race
39:00 — Can Steve Hilton actually win statewide?
44:00 — Why Democratic voters rallied behind Xavier Becerra
50:00+ — What the June primary tells us about November
(Who knows if these times are 100% accurate? But the order is!)
Podcast and YouTube Links
You can listen to this on our Podcast Channel: “So, Does It Matter: The Podcast” on your favorite podcasting app. Or you can go straight here.
You can also watch this episode (and share it) over on YouTube here, or below.
