The Trick Everyone Knows About
California’s top-two primary system has created a strange but very real campaign tactic: sometimes, you do not just run against your opponents. You try to choose which opponent you want to face.
Adam Schiff understood this. Gavin Newsom understood this. Both used “contrast” ads that technically attacked a Republican opponent, but in practice elevated that Republican with exactly the voters most likely to support him.
Schiff did it with Steve Garvey. Newsom did it with Brian Dahle. So why didn’t Tom Steyer do the same thing with Sheriff Chad Bianco?
Steyer Had The Money And The Motive
That is the question I walk through in this video.
Steyer has the money. He has the motive. And in a three-way chase involving Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and Steve Hilton, every Republican vote Bianco pulls could matter — especially if those votes come at Hilton’s expense.
A Steyer ad contrasting himself as the climate-change crusader against Bianco as the law-and-order, gun-rights conservative could have been perfectly legal, perfectly obvious, and potentially very effective. Specifically targeted to likely Republican voters… Yet as far as I can tell, he never did it. I expand on this in the short video above, and replay the Schiff/Garvey ad.
The Becerra Temperament Theory
I also get into a second theory about why Becerra may be outperforming expectations: temperament.
Becerra is not moderate ideologically. Not even close. But compared with Steyer’s overheated style, he may read as more moderate to low-information voters simply because he seems calmer.
That may matter more than people think.
Matt Mahan may be the candidate more consciously trying to occupy the moderate lane, but Becerra may be quietly benefiting from looking like the steadier option next to Steyer.
By the way, this theory is not a full “this is why Becerra shot to the front of the pack” explanation, but it may reflect part of it.
Watch, Listen, Share!
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You can listen to it in this player…
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