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🎙️ This Week on the So, Does It Matter? The Podcast… Hoover Institution Economist Josh Rauh
California voters are being told that a new “billionaire wealth tax” could raise as much as $100 billion for the state.
But what if that number isn’t just optimistic — what if it’s fundamentally wrong?
In this week’s One-On-One Podcast, Jon sits down with Hoover Institution economist Josh Rauh for a deep dive into one of the most consequential policy proposals likely heading to the California ballot.
They begin with a straightforward explanation of what this tax actually does — a one-time 5% levy on billionaire wealth — and why it represents a dramatic departure from how taxation has traditionally worked in the United States.
From there, the conversation moves into the core claim driving the proposal: that it could generate massive new revenue for California. Josh walks through the math behind the $100 billion estimate — and explains why, once you account for errors, residency changes, and real-world behavior, that number quickly falls apart.
The discussion then turns to a critical issue that has already begun to play out: wealthy individuals leaving California. Josh explains how even a small number of departures can dramatically reduce expected revenue — and, more importantly, how the long-term loss of income-tax and capital-gains revenue could leave the state worse off than before.
Jon and Josh also explore the structure of the measure itself, including provisions that could make it easier to repeat or expand the tax in the future. The idea that this is a “one-time” tax, they argue, deserves far more scrutiny.
The conversation then gets into one of the most technical — and potentially alarming — aspects of the proposal: how the state could value wealth. Josh explains the “founder control” issue, where individuals could be taxed not based on what they actually own, but on the level of control they have over companies like Meta or Alphabet. That raises the possibility of taxpayers being assessed based on valuations that far exceed their actual liquid wealth.
They also discuss the real-world consequences of forcing large-scale stock sales, including potential impacts on markets, retirement accounts, and ordinary investors.
The conversation closes with a simple question: Why should voters who are not billionaires care? Josh lays out the economic case — jobs, investment, and long-term growth — while Jon adds the political reality of how new tax revenue is typically used in California.
If you want a serious, fact-based breakdown of what this proposal actually does — and what it could mean for California’s economy — this is a conversation worth watching.
RUN OF SHOW (In case you want to go to a particular segment)
0:00 — Introduction to Josh Rauh
0:43 — Why the billionaire tax matters
1:00 — Josh’s background and Hoover Institution
3:26 — How viewers can help spread the message
4:02 — What the wealth tax actually does
5:37 — Why this is different from traditional taxes
6:21 — The “one-time tax” question
7:46 — Could the tax be expanded or repeated?
8:38 — Role of the California Supreme Court
10:00 — The $100 billion revenue claim
11:47 — Major flaws in the estimate
12:38 — Billionaires leaving California
14:21 — Revised revenue projections
15:26 — California’s history with “temporary” taxes
16:58 — Risk of multiple tax measures on the ballot
18:19 — Loss of income-tax revenue
19:35 — Why the tax could cost California $25 billion
20:46 — The founder control problem
22:55 — Dual-class shares and valuation issues
24:40 — Forced stock sales and market impact
25:46 — Josh’s message to voters
27:45 — Why non-billionaires should care
28:43 — About the Hoover Institution
30:15 — Closing thoughts
🎥 Watch the full conversation video above — and see the various audio options below.
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Useful Links
The Net Present Value of the Billionaire Tax Act: An Assessment of the Fiscal Effects of California’s Proposed Wealth Tax (Research by Josh Rauh)
Fiscal Reality Check substack (Josh Rauh’s substack)
The Commitment Problem at the Heart of California’s Billionaire Tax (article by Josh Rauh, from the Fiscal Reality Check substack)
Video: SIEPR Economic Summit 2026 | California Wealth Tax(Josh Rauh debates Emmanuel Saez, one of the architects of the Billionaire Tax proposal, at Stanford)
Sign Up: Hoover Daily Report (Hoover newsletter spotlighting the latest research and perspectives from Hoover Fellows on the most important policy issues facing America)
The Freedom Frequency (Hoover’s official substack, with frequent articles by Fellows)
More reading on this issue on So, Does It Matter?
SEIU Prepares To Bankroll A New California Billionaire Tax To Feed A Liberal Addiction to Spending
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