My “hot take” on the latest in the California Governor’s race.
I reference two “sources” in my commentary, which are linked here:
Dan Walters’ latest column in CalMatters…
California governor’s race gets weirder with debate cancellation, new poll
And a new survey on the California Governor’s Race was released by the California Democratic Party (as promised, there will be more)…
Survey Results
Our video content is always available on your favorite podcasting app or here. If you’re looking at your app, we have two podcast feeds - So, Does It Matter? Podcasts — and So, Does It Matter? Spoken. The latter has all of our written commentaries in an audio format.
If you don’t want to watch the commentary, here’s what I say!
I was reading Dan Walters’ latest column over at CalMatters, and it inspired this rant. He’s right — this California governor’s race looks weird. But it’s not random.
What we’re seeing is a system failure, not just a messy campaign. A major debate at USC was canceled at the last minute — not over policy, not over issues, but over identity politics. That tells you right away something deeper is going on.
The debate selection was based on polling and fundraising metrics — objective criteria created by a professor at USC, not by the Democratic Party. But the result was that the candidates who qualified were all white, while those excluded were more diverse — Asian, Black, and Hispanic. That triggered immediate backlash from Democratic leaders, and the debate collapsed before it even happened.
This is the reality of a political culture focused on identity colliding with a process that ignores it. And it couldn’t hold together. So instead of debating the issues, the whole thing imploded.
But the debate isn’t the real story — the polling is.
Two Republicans — Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco — are leading the race. And this isn’t just one poll; it includes an internal poll released by the California Democratic Party, whose chairman, Rusty Hicks, has said they plan to poll regularly to try to push candidates out of the race. That alone tells you they have a problem.
Hilton and Bianco are in the mid-teens, while Democrats like Porter, Swalwell, and Steyer are stuck around 10 percent. The rest of the field is polling between 1 and 3 percent. And here’s the key number: roughly a quarter of voters are still undecided, even as mail ballots go out in just weeks. That’s a major warning sign.
California’s top-two primary system changes everything. You don’t need a majority — you just need to finish in the top two. If Republicans hold their base and Democrats keep splitting the vote, you could end up with a Republican versus Republican runoff.
Now, to be clear, that’s still unlikely. But it’s no longer something you can casually dismiss. And the fact that Democratic leadership is openly urging candidates to drop out — and no one is listening — shows this isn’t a strategy. It’s damage control.
Here’s the reality check: a Republican versus Republican runoff remains a long shot, but not because the math doesn’t allow it — it absolutely does. The reason it’s unlikely is that in California, when that kind of outcome starts to look possible, the money reacts.
Public employee unions and aligned political organizations will spend heavily to shape the outcome. That could mean consolidating behind one Democrat late, or even strategically boosting one Republican to ensure the other doesn’t advance — just to guarantee a Democrat makes the general election. That’s how California politics actually works.
But here’s the key point: the longer Republicans stay on top in the polls — and the longer Democrats remain fragmented — the more pressure builds. And the more aggressive that intervention becomes.
So yes, it’s still a long shot. But it’s no longer negligible. Every new poll and every passing week brings that possibility a little closer.
What you’re seeing right now is a fractured Democratic field, a disengaged electorate, and a system being stress-tested in real time. And if Democrats don’t consolidate soon, they may have to face something they haven’t had to worry about in a very long time — the possibility, however unlikely, of losing a governor’s race they assumed was already theirs.
This is Jon Fleischman — thanks for listening.
