California Republicans, Be Forewarned: Two Democrats Could Shut The GOP Out Of The Governor’s Race
The latest public opinion survey shows Xavier Becerra first, Steve Hilton barely second, and Tom Steyer close enough to turn Republican hopes into a top-two disaster.
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⏱️ 5 min read
The Republican Fantasy Was Always A Long Shot
For months, some California Republicans have indulged a political fantasy: what if two Republicans finished first and second in the top-two primary for governor and locked Democrats out of November altogether?
I never bought it.
I said from the beginning that the odds of that happening were about the same as flipping a coin and having it land standing on its edge. Possible, yes. Likely, no. And certainly not something Republicans should build a strategy around.
I have not been alone in that skepticism. Assemblyman Carl DeMaio, Chairman of Reform California, has repeatedly warned Republicans that the top-two system can punish a divided party. Back in December, DeMaio put it bluntly: “If Republicans divide their support among multiple candidates, Democrats will take both top spots — and voters will be left with no real choice in November.”
That warning looks more relevant by the day.
The real danger is not that Republicans pull off a once-in-a-generation miracle and lock Democrats out. The danger is that Republicans spend so much time daydreaming about that miracle that they miss the more obvious threat.
Two Democrats could emerge from the June primary and shut Republicans out of the governor’s race altogether.
That is the risk Republicans need to face.
The Latest Poll Should Terrify Republicans
The EMC Research poll conducted April 21–26 among 1,000 likely voters found Democrat Xavier Becerra in first place with 21 percent, Republican Steve Hilton second with 20 percent, Democrat Tom Steyer close behind at 17 percent, and Republican Chad Bianco fourth at 14 percent. Katie Porter and Matt Mahan were each at 8 percent, Antonio Villaraigosa at 3 percent, Tony Thurmond at 2 percent, “someone else” at 5 percent, and only 1 percent undecided.
One survey does not settle a volatile race. But EMC Research is a long-established campaign and public affairs polling firm, not some anonymous online outfit. If more surveys show the same pattern, every California conservative should feel a pit in their stomach. (There’s also a new poll from an independent effort going after Steyer that shows even more Bacerra surge, but I try not to focus much on surveys paid for by interest groups.)
Read the numbers plainly. Becerra is not chasing the top two. He is already in it. Hilton is not safely positioned for November. He is holding second place by three points over Steyer. Bianco is fourth.
Republicans do not need some complicated collapse scenario to get locked out. They only need Steyer to gain a few points while Hilton stays flat or slips. If Steyer moves from 17 percent to 20 or 21 percent, and Becerra holds, the November governor’s race becomes Democrat versus Democrat.
And where would Steyer’s extra votes come from? Katie Porter is already down to 8 percent. If she keeps falling, her voters are not likely to migrate to Hilton or Bianco. Many will stay inside the Democratic family. Steyer is an obvious landing place: wealthy, well-known, acceptable to many Democratic voters, and able to communicate through the finish line.
Republicans do not need a polling earthquake to get shut out.
They need a polling breeze.
The Mission Is Not A Perfect Outcome. It Is Avoiding A Catastrophe.
California’s top-two primary does not guarantee Democrats one spot and Republicans one spot. It does not reward party loyalty, ideological purity, or online confidence. It rewards votes.
The two candidates with the most votes advance. That is it.
That means Republicans can have two serious candidates, a motivated base, and a strong anti-Newsom message — and still get shut out if the vote breaks the wrong way. Under normal partisan-primary rules, Republicans would nominate a candidate and carry their argument into November. Under California’s top-two system, they first have to survive June.
A lot of Republicans have told me they intend to vote late for whichever Republican is trailing — Bianco or Hilton — in hopes of pushing both Republicans into the top two.
That is exactly backward.
The mission is not to create a perfect outcome. The mission is to avoid a catastrophic one. If you are voting late, the priority should be supporting the Republican with the best chance of surviving to November. Chasing the weaker Republican in hopes of manufacturing a Hilton-Bianco runoff could be how Republicans end up with neither.
That is the hard math of this race. Becerra at 21. Hilton at 20. Steyer at 17. Bianco at 14. A modest late shift among Democratic voters who were never going to vote Republican anyway could erase the GOP from the November governor’s race.
Republicans who still think the only top-two danger runs against Democrats are looking at this race backward.
So, Does It Matter?
This is not just about who becomes governor. A Republican at the top of the ticket matters for every serious Republican campaign down the ballot: Congress, State Senate, Assembly, county supervisor, city council, school board, and local measures. In close races, turnout is everything.
A statewide Republican candidate gives Republican voters a reason to show up. It gives donors, activists, volunteers, county parties, grassroots groups, and local campaigns a focal point. It gives the party a statewide message and a statewide contrast. Remove that candidate from the November ballot, and the fall campaign becomes a Democratic family argument.
A November campaign without a Republican nominee for governor is not acceptable for California Republicans. It is not acceptable for conservatives. Frankly, it is not acceptable for voters who deserve a real debate on crime, homelessness, taxes, energy, water, education, housing, insurance, and the wreckage Gavin Newsom leaves behind.
The mission should be clear: ensure at least one Republican survives until November.
Republicans have spent months entertaining the fantasy of a two-Republican runoff. But the latest polling points to a much harsher possibility: California’s top-two system is far more likely to punish the GOP than it is to punish Democrats.
That is the danger now.
Republicans should stop fantasizing about the coin landing on its edge.
They should start making sure it does not land on their heads.
Straight Talk Video Below
Just below, I really lay this out succinctly in a hard-hitting video…
