Today I Voted For Steve Hilton For Governor, And Why You Should As Well

Two conservatives are running for governor — but in my opinion only one has a chance to make the runoff.

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🕐 6-minute read

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Chad Bianco Is the Real Deal

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is a serious candidate for governor. He has led a major law enforcement agency, spent 33 years in public safety, raised millions of dollars, and built a deep statewide conservative grassroots network. He has sharply and effectively made the case that Democratic one-party rule has driven California’s economy, public safety, and quality of life in the wrong direction. He has taken on waste, fraud, and abuse in government, and at the California Republican Party convention, he received more delegate support than any other candidate — though not enough to secure the party endorsement.

All of that matters. But it does not change the hard reality now facing California Republicans: Bianco is running into the unforgiving math of California’s top-two election system. I have been saying this publicly for months. At some point in this race, Republican voters would face a moment of truth — a choice between loyalty to a candidate they admire and the cold arithmetic of actually getting a Republican into the November runoff. I told anyone who asked that when that moment came, I would vote for the conservative best positioned to make it through.

That moment is now.

Why Steve Hilton Earned My Vote

Today I cast my ballot for Steve Hilton. This is not a decision I made lightly. And it is not a repudiation of Chad Bianco. Trump’s endorsement of Hilton accelerated what the polls were already showing. But it is not why I voted the way I did. I cast my ballot because it is clear to me that unless there is greater Republican consolidation behind Hilton, it is very possible that Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer will advance to the general election, locking out the GOP.

I have had many opportunities to talk with Steve Hilton directly — including a long-form conversation on my podcast and a separate session with his full campaign team. What struck me both times was not the polish you might expect from a television personality. It was the substance underneath it. Hilton has a command of California’s specific policy failures that goes well beyond talking points. He understands why housing costs have exploded, why businesses keep leaving, and why public safety has collapsed in city after city.

Consider one example. Hilton has proposed eliminating state income tax entirely for Californians earning under $100,000 a year. That is not a talking point — it is a specific, structural commitment to put money back in the pockets of working and middle-class families who have been squeezed for years by Sacramento’s appetite for revenue. He pairs it with a serious deregulation agenda on housing and energy that acknowledges the Legislature will not simply hand him what he wants. His agenda is built around what a Republican governor can actually accomplish through executive power alone — not what sounds good on a debate stage.

That kind of governing realism is rare in Sacramento. It matters more to me than any endorsement. Hilton has been running a robust statewide campaign, traveling across California and lining up support from voters fed up with the direction decades of Democratic rule have taken this state. Bianco brings the gravitas of an elected sheriff. Hilton brings years of experience as a Fox News host, during which he established himself as a serious conservative voice with strong policy chops and a clear understanding of California’s decline. Both men are the real thing. Only one is positioned to survive June.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Across recent credible statewide polls, the trend is hard to ignore. Emerson College Polling showed Hilton tied for second place at 17%, while Bianco trailed at 8%. A recent CBS/YouGov survey likewise showed Hilton leading the Republican field while Bianco lagged behind. And RealClearPolling’s aggregation of recent surveys points to the same basic conclusion: Republican voters are consolidating behind Hilton following Trump’s endorsement. Different pollsters. Different methodologies. Same conclusion.

The trajectory is no longer difficult to see — and for me personally, it was no longer possible to wait for Election Day to act on it. This is not a formal endorsement of Steve Hilton’s politics or his platform in any broad sense. It is something more specific: a vote cast with eyes wide open about what California Republicans need to accomplish in June.

In California’s top-two system, voters do not get rewarded for sentiment. They get punished for division. Let me be clear: I take no pleasure in saying that. I think Chad Bianco would have been an excellent governor for California. But this slow-rolling Republican contest has become the political equivalent of passing a kidney stone. At some point, reality has to be faced. Sometimes, as a political analyst, you call balls and strikes even when you wince at the conclusion. Today, I did not just call it. I acted on it.

What Happens If Republicans Get This Wrong

The reality is that Republicans are facing the possibility of something disastrous. Because voters unwisely adopted California’s dreadful top-two primary system about 15 years ago, the candidates who finish first and second in June advance to November — regardless of party. Right now, multiple polls suggest this is effectively a three-person race for the top two spots: former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, and Steve Hilton. That means if Republican voters do not consolidate behind the Republican who is actually in contention, California Republicans could be shut out of the November election for governor altogether. That would be a political calamity.

While the odds of a Republican defeating a Democrat for governor in November remain long, they are not zero. But upsets happen in politics. If Hilton makes the runoff, Republicans at least have a chance to make their case to the entire state. If Hilton does not make the runoff, that chance drops to precisely zero. And the damage would not stop at the governor’s race — Republicans hold thousands of offices here, in Congress, the Legislature, county governments, city councils, school boards, and special districts. If there is no top-of-the-ticket candidate to rally behind, nobody can fully predict how devastating the blow could be to Republican enthusiasm and turnout.

Weak Republican turnout could also affect statewide measures seeking billions in new taxes, billions in new borrowing, and still more expansions of government power. A critically important voter ID initiative could hang in the balance. The ballot in June is not just about the governor’s race. It never was.

So, Does It Matter?

I am not calling on Sheriff Bianco to drop out. He has given this campaign everything he has and run a serious race. He does not strike me as someone who stops running anyway — he is a run-hard-through-the-finish-line kind of guy. Bianco supporters do not have to dislike their candidate to recognize the danger. They only have to look at the numbers. And they can draw their own conclusions — just as I drew mine.

Of course, voters can do whatever they want. But they should not pretend the consequences are unclear. The alternative may not be a November campaign featuring a robust debate between competing visions for California. The alternative may be a sprint to the left between two Democrats, while Republicans watch from the sidelines.

I voted for Steve Hilton to prevent that. Every Californian who believes that a generation of progressive, left-wing one-party rule has been enough — for this state, for their family, for their future — can do the same.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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Here is a link to the Steve Hilton for Governor website.

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And the two podcasts of interest…

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