The Socialist Who Could Cost Nithya Raman A Runoff Spot

A little-known candidate running far to the left of Nithya Raman may become one of the most important figures in the Los Angeles mayor’s race.

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The Candidate Nobody Is Watching

Most Los Angeles voters have probably never heard of Rae Huang. That may change after Election Day.

Huang is a socialist running somewhere to the left of City Councilwoman Nithya Raman — no easy accomplishment in Los Angeles politics. Her platform includes housing reparations, “Indigenous land back” policies, social housing, reducing reliance on traditional policing, and other activist priorities that place her on the outer edge of the city’s political left.

Ordinarily, a candidacy like hers would be little more than a political curiosity. This year may be different.

The Ten Percent Problem

Recent polling suggests Huang is attracting support approaching 10 percent of the electorate. That is nowhere near enough to make the runoff, but it may be more than enough to determine who does.

The race for second place has become increasingly competitive. Karen Bass appears likely to secure one of the two runoff positions, leaving Raman, Spencer Pratt, and others battling for the remaining slot. (There is one survey that even causes you to wonder if Bass will not come through in pole position!)

In a close race, every vote matters. And Huang appears to be drawing votes from exactly the part of the electorate Raman needs most.

Fishing In The Same Pond

It is difficult to imagine Huang hurting Spencer Pratt. It is even harder to imagine she is taking meaningful support away from Karen Bass.

Huang and Raman are competing for many of the same progressive activists, many of the same left-wing voters, and many of the same ideological constituencies. The difference is that Huang is offering those voters an even more uncompromising version of the politics they already support.

That may be good news for Huang. It may be terrible news for Raman.

A Potentially Fatal Split

Without Huang in the race, Raman would likely be in a much stronger position today. Instead, she finds herself fighting for every vote while watching a candidate to her left siphon away support that could ultimately determine who advances.

Political campaigns spend enormous amounts of money trying to gain a few percentage points. Huang may be pulling away far more than that.

If Raman falls short of the runoff by a narrow margin, her supporters will undoubtedly point to fundraising, messaging, turnout, and campaign strategy. They may be overlooking the most obvious explanation.

So, Does It Matter?

Sometimes the most important candidate in an election is not the one who wins. It is the one who changes the outcome.

Rae Huang is almost certainly not going to become the next mayor of Los Angeles. But she may end up accomplishing something nearly as significant.

If Nithya Raman misses the runoff, the political scalp will belong to Huang. And that would make an obscure socialist one of the most consequential candidates in the race.