The Four (and a Half) Things That Could Stop Newsom’s Plans To Redraw California House Lines
Newsom’s gambit may very well move forward, and succeed. But here are some potential roadblocks on his path…
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Gavin’s Big Lift
California Governor Gavin Newsom has ignited a political firestorm with a bold plan to counter Texas’ Republican-led gerrymandering by radically redrawing California’s congressional maps. As I detailed in a column last week, Newsom intends to ask the state legislature to place a constitutional amendment on the November 2025 ballot, at an estimated cost of $200 million, to allow Democrats to reshape the state’s 52 U.S. House districts. The goal? Shift the current 43-9 Democrat-Republican split to an audacious 49-3 advantage, potentially flipping seats held by Republicans like Doug LaMalfa, Young Kim, Ken Calvert, and David Valadao, while forcing GOP primaries between Kevin Kiley and Tom McClintock, and Vince Fong and Jay Obernolte. Framed as an anti-Trump response to Texas’ plan to add Republican seats, this move would bypass the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission, leveraging a two-thirds legislative vote and a special election to cement Democratic dominance through 2030.
While there clearly is a path forward for Newsom to successfully change the lines, with the help of two-thirds of his legislature and a majority of Californians who vote in a very low turnout special election this November, there are four (and a half) reasons why his play could come up short.
1️⃣ The Polling
As I told the Los Angeles Times yesterday, “Newsom cares a lot more about running for President than he cares about this redistricting play. In fact, I think his big motivation in all of this is to boost his chances of winning the Democratic nomination for President in 2028. Because of this, the bar is very high for Newsom to move forward — he will continue to conduct polling and likely engage focus groups to figure out his most effective messaging with voters, and to test the messages opponents will use to fight back. If he actually moves forward, it will be because he thinks he cannot lose. It’s worth mentioning that if the polling is iffy, that doesn’t mean he won’t still keep pressing the issue publicly to try and get Texas Republicans to stand down.”
2️⃣ Potential Democratic Legislator Infighting
Moving forward for Newsom requires getting supermajority votes out of both the State Senate and the State Assembly. That might sound easy—just make the case that this is an anti-Trump move and expect every Democrat to line up perfectly. But the devil is in the details.
It is no small thing to crack open U.S. House lines that were not drawn by this legislature. There are 43 House Democratic incumbents who all care (a lot!) about their lines. None of them want to be drawn out of their own seats. They have favorite communities they want to represent, and others they would not mind losing. To reduce Republican registration in, say, six GOP-held seats, those voters must be moved somewhere else—mostly into neighboring Democratic districts. That lowers Democratic victory margins, and it can get messy.
Add to that the Senators and Assemblymembers who want to run for House seats themselves. Who gets “lucky” enough to be in these newly drawn pickup seats? And almost all of them will want new lines that overlap as much of their current districts as possible. Herding cats may be easier. This won’t necessarily kill the plan, but it adds friction and uncertainty.
3️⃣ Republican-Initiated State And Federal Lawsuits
Redistricting delayed can mean new districts for 2026 denied. I am not an attorney, but I know a few and have been talking to them. Comprehensive analysis is already underway to determine how this plan might violate the state constitution or laws (though Newsom’s supermajorities can change state laws with urgency votes to clear obstacles). Of course I have some skepticism about the viability of lawsuits on the state side given that we have seen California’s Democrat-dominated State Supreme Court flex judicial activism to help with liberal causes before. The top court in California, with 7 Justices, is made up of three Newsom appointees, three appointees of former Governor Jerry Brown, and a solitary Schwarzenegger appointee.
Federal law may offer a stronger avenue for challenges. At the federal level, expect lawsuits aimed at slowing the process enough to prevent new maps in time for 2026. Trump’s Justice Department would likely weigh in, and all roads eventually lead to a conservative U.S. Supreme Court. Winning outright may not be necessary for Republicans—just delaying could be enough to stop this round of gerrymandering.
4️⃣ A Well-Funded Opposition Campaign
Those of us who have been involved in California politics for a while (I first entered the arena as a young activist in 1987) remember when this state was politically competitive. Republicans could elect governors, statewide officeholders, even U.S. senators. That’s no longer the case. California’s GOP fundraising for statewide fights has atrophied. Conservative donors now focus on competitive congressional and legislative seats, or on national races.
To beat this measure, opponents would need tens of millions of dollars. But with control of the U.S. House at stake, expect national Republican committees and super PACs to bring major resources to California. Democrats here are unaccustomed to serious, well-funded opposition on ballot measures. A big-money campaign could make voters wary of handing Democrats even more control of redistricting—and that could kill the measure.
Of course with Arnold Schwarzenegger coming out against Newsom’s plans yesterday you can close your eyes and here the tag line on commercials staring the action-hero and Governator — “Hasta La Vista, Self-Serving Politicians!”
4️⃣.5️⃣ What If Texas Does Not Redraw Their Lines?
Newsom claims this is all a response to Trump’s public call for Texas to redraw their maps to add GOP seats. Governor Abbott has called a special session to do just that, but it’s not guaranteed to happen. Newsom has said he won’t pursue California’s plan unless Texas acts first. Right now you are more likely to find a Democratic State Legislator from the Lone Star State taking in a Cubs game at Wrigley Field than in the legislative chambers of the Texas State Capitol in Austin. Republicans are pulling out all of the stops there.) Right
I’m skeptical. After all the polling and focus groups, if Newsom sees a likely path to victory, don’t be surprised if the California redistricting gambit moves forward anyway. As the saying goes, “Absolute power corrupts, absolutely.”
We will see how all of this develops in the coming days. In politics one thing is always certain—the calendar. State legislators return to Sacramento soon, with a tight window to act. We’ll know whether this is happening well before Labor Day.
About the author: Jon Fleischman has been a conservative strategist in California for well over three decades. He has played a role in hundreds of campaigns and causes. Once upon a time he served as Executive Director of the California Republican Party.
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Diluting previously safe seats can also backfire. Democratic Rep X winning the same D+20 seat over & over for a decade may turn out to be (or devolved into) a lazy gen election candidate who could lose a D+5 race.