*Breaking* New Survey: Prop. 50 over 50%, Barely —Governor’s Race Still a Wide-Open Mess

An Emerson College survey shows Prop. 50 narrowly ahead, with major partisan and education splits; in the 2026 governor’s race, Katie Porter leads a fractured field as Newsom approval dropped a bit.

⏱️ 5 min read

Prop 50: Slim Majority, Strong Divisions

An Emerson College Polling survey of 1,000 active registered California voters conducted last week finds 51 percent plan to vote yes on Proposition 50 in the November special election, 34 percent against, and 15 percent undecided. Among those who say they are “very likely” to vote, support rises to 55 percent, while opposition stands at 35 percent.

It is important to note that this survey measured all registered voters, not just those likely to cast ballots. Historically, likely voters form a smaller, more partisan universe, and in California that usually means higher Democratic strength. That dynamic suggests Proposition 50 may actually be doing a little better than the top-line number indicates.

The demographic breakdowns reveal sharp divides. Voters with college or postgraduate degrees back Prop 50 by nearly 60 percent, while those without a college degree support it at only about 43 percent. Partisanship is even starker: Democrats line up solidly behind the measure, while Republicans overwhelmingly reject it. And one more caution is worth noting: the poll did not include the official ballot title and summary. Many Californians are influenced by that wording when it lands in their mailbox, meaning the numbers today may not fully reflect the electorate’s final decision.

Governor’s Race: Porter Leads, but Uncertainty Reigns

In the same survey, fielded September 15–16, Democratic former Congresswoman Katie Porter tops the crowded field for governor with 16 percent support. She is followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 10 percent, Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco at 8 percent, and Democrat former Obama Cabinet Secretary Xavier Becerra at 5 percent. Most striking of all, however, is the 38 percent of voters who remain undecided.

Here again, the survey design matters. Emerson listed candidates by name and political party, which provides an important cue for voters. But it did not include the official ballot titles that will appear in the voter guide and on ballots. While party affiliation is a critical piece of information, ballot titles often shape first impressions, especially among lower-information voters. Without them, survey results may not capture how some Californians will actually make their choices in the voting booth.

Porter’s support comes disproportionately from older voters, those with postgraduate degrees, and white Californians. Among younger voters and those without a college background, her advantage is far less pronounced, leaving a significant opening for others.

Comparing Newsom’s Approval: PPIC & UCI-OC Context

The Emerson survey also measured Governor Gavin Newsom’s job performance, finding 46 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval. That figure becomes more revealing when set against other surveys. A PPIC poll in June found Newsom at 44 percent approval among California adults, down from 52 percent in February. A University of California, Irvine poll from late spring showed him stronger, with about 56 percent offering a favorable view.

Methodology Snapshot and Link to the Survey

The Emerson poll was conducted last week among 1,000 active registered voters in California. The margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points. The PPIC survey referenced here included about 1,600 adults statewide, while the UC Irvine poll was conducted in late May and early June and asked about favorability rather than job approval. You can check out the survey top lines, data and such here.

My analysis of this survey is below.

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Okay, everything you just read is the what — what the survey says.

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