Emerson College poll breaks down voter views on redistricting, the 2026 gubernatorial primary, and 2028 presidential primaries with clear numbers.
Redistricting - Bad News for Newsom. I talk about how bad in my video above.
In the video above I breakdown why these numbers below are terrible for Newsom’s plans. The poll asks the question in a pretty neutral way, and we get these results. Obviously the legislature could give it a very biased title and summary to give this a boost. But can it help THAT much? Listen to my take.
These numbers are so bad that you have to wonder if the Governor knows this, but is playing “political poker” with President Trump and Governor Abbott of Texas, using what may be an empty threat to try to get them to back down on a Lone Star State redraw of their House map. If the Governor has better internal polling numbers, he may have to “show his cards” as it were.
Here’s how the question was asked: Do you support or oppose the proposal to redraw California’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 Midterm Elections?
Anyways, The idea of redrawing California’s congressional map before the 2026 midterms is splitting voters. The Emerson College poll lays it out plainly:
Democrats back the plan 42% to 19%, while Republicans lean against it, 36% to 28%. Independents are largely unsure at 52%, with only 23% supporting and 25% opposing. This chart shows a state hesitant to embrace mid-cycle map changes, with uncertainty dominating.
Gubernatorial Primary: A Crowded Field
The 2026 race for California governor is wide open, with no candidate breaking away.
Katie Porter leads with 18%, strongest among voters over 50 (22%) and those with postgraduate degrees (35%). Steve Hilton’s 12% is notable for a newcomer, followed by Chad Bianco (7%) and Antonio Villaraigosa (5%). A combined 43% of voters are either undecided or support other candidates, down from 54% undecided in April, showing a race that’s still fluid and unpredictable.
Presidential Primaries: Early Favorites Emerge
Looking to 2028, the presidential primaries show clear frontrunners. Here’s how California voters lean:
Gavin Newsom tops Democrats with 23%, followed by Pete Buttigieg (17%), Kamala Harris (11%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (9%). On the Republican side, JD Vance dominates with 40%, far ahead of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (10%) and Ron DeSantis (9%). With 14% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans undecided, these races are far from settled.
So, Does It Matter?
These charts capture a state in transition. Redistricting faces skepticism, with nearly half of voters unsure, signaling a demand for clear reasoning over political games. The gubernatorial race, with 43% either undecided or backing lesser-known names, reflects a hunger for fresh leadership. In the presidential primaries, Newsom’s 23% shows promise but no lock, while Vance’s 40% suggests a GOP base ready for new blood. These numbers aren’t just stats—they’re a challenge to candidates to earn trust and deliver ideas that resonate. California’s choices will shape more than just the state’s future.
Poll Source: Emerson College Polling - California 2026 Poll
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