Kamala Harris Eyes California: Comeback Bid or Strategic Retreat?

The former Vice President is considering a 2026 gubernatorial run as California Governor Gavin Newsom approaches the end of his final term.

Image of the indecisive Kamala Harris courtesy of ChatGPT.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is eyeing a return to Sacramento. But is the California governor's office a political step down—or her key to a comeback?

Reports indicate that Harris, previously California's Attorney General and a U.S. Senator, is considering a 2026 gubernatorial run. Term-limited Gavin Newsom will vacate the office, and Harris, a fellow San Francisco political institution, is inclined to take the plunge.

However, trading Washington's global stage for Sacramento's policy drudgery involves rightful questions of motive, ambition, and timing.

Several high-profile Democrats have already declared, including former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, State Controller Betty Yee, and others, such as Los Angeles businessman Rick Caruso, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Attorney General Rob Bonta, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond comprise a diverse and geographically diverse field.

There's a new Berkeley IGS poll with Harris leading at 31% among likely Democratic primary voters, benefiting from her high name identification from her 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns. Such brand power makes her a first-tier candidate. After two unsuccessful presidential campaigns, others view a governor's bid as a Plan B. Is it a case of rekindling her California base—or relaunching her political career ahead of a future national campaign?

A seasoned Democratic strategist observes, "If she runs, she'll clear some of the field, but not all of it. And she'll inherit Newsom's baggage whether she wants to or not.".

That baggage weighs a lot. Homelessness, high taxes, divisive COVID policies, and a $24 billion unemployment fraud fiasco have stained Newsom's popularity. The bullet train initiative—$128 billion with little to show—remains a budgetary and political lightning rod for Harris, who shares big donors and longtime political benefactors with Newsom, creating an issue. Criticize his record and risk their shared base of support. Say nothing and risk being accused of being complicit in his shortcomings.

The challenge isn't so much a policy issue—it's a matter of political position. Harris must balance leadership and loyalty, especially if she is to regain her reputation as a decisive executive rather than a cautious insider.

Meanwhile, Harris's proximity to President Biden could complicate matters. As Vice President, she had weekly lunches with him—even as concern mounted over his cognitive decline. New revelations, including the tape of his FBI interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur and excerpts from Jake Tapper's book, indicate a widening liability for Democrats. A former prosecutor, Harris may have had early suspicions—but said nothing. Critics of her silence believe it was not a matter of loyalty but politics. In a state growing more skeptical of D.C. insiders, that could erode her frontrunner status.

If she were to run, Harris would need to remake her public image and reintroduce herself to California's broad and polarized electorate. Her past statewide victories and national visibility provide her with a formidable platform. Still, the landscape has changed—and voters may wonder why she would step backward from the world stage to Sacramento's prickly problems.

And then there's the looming 2028 presidential election. Newsom is all but certain to run for office. A gubernatorial bid could now help Harris reassert her executive credentials. Still, it would also put her on a direct collision course with Newsom, who share the same California donor and voter universe. Two Golden State competitors could split support in crucial early states, damaging both.

Two Republicans are running for Governor thus far - Fox News host (now on hiatus to run) Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Can either of them be competitive in such a blue state? To say it’s an uphill battle would be an understatement. However, Republicans did fare better last November than they have in a while. Politico had a piece on the GOP field yesterday analyzing whether a Harris candidacy would boost a Republican opponent. Frankly, the ideal situation, given California’s dumb top-two election system, would be the trove of Democrats divvying up the liberal vote and Hilton and Bianco both advancing to the General Election. That might be as likely as Ulysses shooting an arrow through all ax handles. But he did (so says the tale)

Alternatively, Harris might forgo 2026 and 2028, waiting until 2032 to conserve political capital and avoid a costly intraparty fight.

But for a person as ambitious—and under the microscope—as Kamala Harris, staying on the sidelines may prove harder than taking the gauntlet. Whether she returns to lead or waits her turn, whatever she does next will define her ambition and willingness to confront the most brutal truths about her record, her relationships, and her future.