California’s Redistricting Showdown: Newsom’s Trump Gambit Faces a Jump Ball

A Harper Polling survey shows Proposition 50’s anti-Trump framing drives support, but voter concerns over corruption and permanence make the outcome a toss-up.

🕒 5 minute read

Who Was Surveyed, and the Topline Number

A Harper Polling survey, conducted for the United States Justice Foundation from August 25-27, offers a sharp view of California’s electorate ahead of the November 4 special election. The sample mirrors the state’s Democratic lean: 49.6% Democrats, 29.1% Republicans, 16.4% Independents, with 35.9% identifying as liberal, 31.3% moderate, and 29.4% conservative. When asked about their 2024 vote, 54.1% reported choosing Kamala Harris, 33.9% Donald Trump. This polarization fuels Governor Gavin Newsom’s push to bypass the voter-approved Citizens Redistricting Commission, with 51.9% supporting his plan (41.7% strongly) when framed as a counter to Republican redistricting in Texas, linked to Trump’s broader influence, against 41% opposed. It is worth noting that while the ballot question asked in this survey isn't the exact biased language Bonta gave it - its very close to it. The numbers signal a divided field where partisan framing could tip the scales…

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Now 80% of this analysis right below the paywall. Hundreds now have access to this, but you should have your own access! I go over a lot from this survey, and for those who are into it, there are a couple of informative charts!

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