California Comings and Goings - Dems Coming, Reps Going

New data from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Republicans fleeing California for red states while Democrats pour in. So, does it matter?

🕒 3.5 min read (long if you stare at charts)

The Exodus Revealed

Fresh research from the Public Policy Institute of California has pulled back the curtain on something many of us already suspected: California is witnessing some level of political realignment through migration patterns. The numbers tell the story. Between 2020 and 2024, voters who packed up and left California were overwhelmingly more likely to be Republican—39 percent compared to just 25 percent of the state’s overall registered voter population. At the same time, newcomers arriving in the Golden State skewed heavily Democratic at 54 percent, well above the statewide average of 45 percent. If this trend continues for a long period of time, the effects would be pretty obvious… A bluer state.

Source: PPIC Blog Post Linked In Piece

Why Republicans Are Leaving

Everyone knows about California’s crushing cost of living—the astronomical housing prices, punishing tax burden, and regulatory maze strangling small businesses. However, the PPIC research reveals something deeper at work here. Politics matters more than many analysts have acknowledged. Republicans who feel politically homeless in a state dominated by one-party rule are making a calculated decision to seek out places where their values align with local governance. When you live in a state where your voice feels irrelevant, where policies consistently move in directions that contradict your core beliefs about limited government and individual responsibility, the logical response is to find somewhere that welcomes those principles. The data bears this out starkly: nearly five Republicans left California for every one who moved in during this period. Compare that to Democrats, where the outflow was just 1.5 times the inflow, or independents at 2.1 times.

Democrats Flock to the Golden State

While Republicans head south and east to states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, California has become a powerful magnet for Democrats from every corner of America. These new residents bring political views that are often more progressive than even California’s already liberal electorate. The only exception? Migrants from Hawaii, which makes sense given that state’s intensely blue political culture. This creates what political scientists call a reinforcement effect. Progressive policies attract more progressives, who then support even more progressive policies, creating an endless cycle that pushes the state further left. Each new arrival who values expansive government programs and social engineering becomes another vote for the policies that drive away those who prefer smaller government and personal freedom.

The Cost of Polarization - The Great Sort

California is not operating in a vacuum here. What we are witnessing represents part of a broader American phenomenon where citizens increasingly choose to live among people who share their political worldview. This geographic sorting has profound implications that extend far beyond state borders. When Republicans leave California for redder pastures, they make those destination states even more conservative. Meanwhile, the Democrats who replace them push California further into progressive territory. The PPIC researchers note some exceptions to this pattern—migrants to places like Ohio and Wisconsin bring slightly more Democratic perspectives than their new neighbors—but the overall trend remains unmistakable. This self-sorting creates dangerous political echo chambers where opposing viewpoints become increasingly rare and compromise is nearly impossible.

A Glimmer of Resistance

Yet all is not lost for those who hope California might someday return to political balance. Some encouraging signs emerged in 2024 that suggest not all Californians have embraced the progressive orthodoxy. Voters shifted more toward Republican candidates in the presidential election than they had in twenty years. Perhaps more telling, younger Californians are rejecting traditional party labels altogether. While only 18 percent of young voters register as Republicans compared to 25 percent statewide, they are also turning away from the Democratic Party in significant numbers. A full 40 percent of young voters now register as independents or with minor parties, compared to just 30 percent of all California voters. This suggests a hunger for political alternatives that neither major party currently satisfies.

So, Does It Matter?

The implications of this political migration pattern should concern anyone who values intellectual diversity and robust democratic debate. When a state systematically loses citizens championing individual liberty, personal responsibility, and limited government, what place does it become? This brain drain of liberty-minded citizens risks creating a state where centralized control goes unchallenged and personal freedom takes a backseat to collective mandates. History shows us that societies thrive when different viewpoints compete in the marketplace of ideas. When one perspective dominates completely, innovation suffers, creativity withers, and freedom erodes. If California continues down this path, it may discover that political homogeneity comes at a steep price.