*Breaking News* New Survey Put Out By Punchbowl News Shows Prop 50 At 54% Likely Support
A slight majority favors shifting from an independent commission-drawn map to one that is written to help Democrats take control of Congress, according to Punchbowl News reporting of this new survey…
⏱️ 3.5-Minute Read
Voter support rising ahead of November ballot
According to new Punchbowl News reporting by Ally Mutnick, a survey from GOP-aligned firm co/efficient finds 54 percent of likely California voters support Proposition 50 — the November ballot measure that would transfer redistricting authority from the state’s independent citizens’ commission to heavily gerrymandered lines drawn by the legislature. In this survey 36 percent oppose 50, with 10 percent undecided. It is likely that most of the undecided votes, if pressed, would vote no, based on how undecided voters tend to break on ballot measures.
The initial article from Punchbowl news did not have all of the specifics on the survey, but I e-mailed ally who provided this link, filled with data for those who want to consume detailed information.
Mutnick reports that survey respondents were read the official ballot question verbatim, an important detail that distinguishes this poll from message-testing surveys that paraphrase or summarize measures. When respondents heard Democratic messaging that Prop 50 would “protect California from federal interference,” support climbed further. Republican arguments warning the measure would “undermine democracy and empower politicians” moved fewer voters.
According to Mutnick, the Yes on 50 campaign has already spent nearly $65 million on television, radio, and digital advertising. State filings show the campaign still holds roughly the same amount in reserve. Based on this very partisan maps pushing through to the ballot by Governor Newsom and legislative Democrats control could yield as many as five additional Democratic-leaning congressional seats.
The state’s independent redistricting commission, established by voters in 2008 to curb partisan manipulation and applied to House lines in a widely-popular 2010 measure, remains more trusted overall: 35 percent of voters say they trust the commission most to draw maps, compared with 12 percent who trust the Legislature.
Anti-Trump Messaging In A Very Blue State
Gavin Newsom’s strategy on making Prop. 50 a referendum on President Trump clearly is resonating with voters. As you can see from this image, the partisan break on this is really, really high. California is a very Democratic state, so it figures that this strategy would be a smart one.
Methodology matters
As of publication, it remains unclear how the polling firm determined who likely special election voters would be — but it is significant that they have tried to winnow down those being surveyed. This is not a broad survey of all voters. For those unfamiliar, Punchbowl News is a very credible outfit out of Washington, D.C., that is primarily focused on all things going on in the Beltway. Hence my giving this information a lot of weight.
So, Does It Matter?
It does. If Proposition 50 passes, it would represent both a rollback of California’s signature redistricting reform and proof of the continuing potency of anti-Trump messaging in an overwhelmingly blue state. Even on a technical ballot issue, national framing moves voters — a lesson neither party should ignore.
While sitting at 54% is not a bad place to be for Newson and company, that is far from a runaway. It falls under the category of “I’d rather be the side with a bare majority, but this will be very close if competitive campaigns are waged on both sides.”
Oh yeah, on a closing note — there will be a lot of surveys on this. So we can follow in real time. The most important survey over voters, of course, is their votes! Ballots should show up in mailboxes this week.