Breaking News: New Poll Shows GOP Potentially On Verge Of Governor’s Race Lockout
Emerson’s latest statewide poll shows Steve Hilton just one point behind Tom Steyer for second place, meaning California Republicans could lose their November runoff spot if conservatives fail to cons
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A Poll Republicans Cannot Ignore
A newly released Emerson College statewide survey of likely voters should be setting off alarm bells across California. The survey shows Xavier Becerra leading the governor’s race with 28%, followed by Tom Steyer at 22% and Steve Hilton at 21%. Chad Bianco is at 12%, while Katie Porter and Matt Mahan are each at 5%, with 4% of voters still undecided.
That means Hilton is not safely in the runoff. He is one point behind Steyer for second place, with only the top two candidates advancing to November. Under California’s top-two election system, that one-point difference could be the difference between a competitive November election and a governor’s race in which Republicans are completely locked out.
This Is Not Just One Poll
The Emerson poll is the newest warning sign, but it is not the only one. There have been a handful of recent statewide surveys, and while the numbers vary a bit from poll to poll, they all show the same basic picture: Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, and Steve Hilton are grouped at the top as the only candidates with a realistic path to the November runoff.
That matters because the contest is no longer just about candidate preference. It is about survival in the top two. If the final runoff is Becerra versus Hilton, Californians will get a real statewide debate over the direction of the state. If the final runoff is Becerra versus Steyer, Republicans will be out of the governor’s race long before voters cast ballots in November.
The fact that multiple polls are now telling the same story should get Republicans’ attention. The individual numbers may differ, but the overall conclusion does not. The race has narrowed to three serious contenders, and only one Republican remains in position to advance.
Bianco Supporters Face A Hard Reality
Many conservatives prefer Chad Bianco, and that is understandable. He has built a loyal following among grassroots Republicans who appreciated his blunt style, his law-and-order message, and his willingness to challenge Sacramento on public safety, illegal immigration, and government overreach. He would have been a great Governor.
But the new Emerson poll delivers a hard reality check. Bianco is at 12%, while Hilton is at 21% and sitting within striking distance of the second runoff spot in this latest polling snapshot. That gap matters because California’s top-two system does not reward sending a message. It rewards finishing first or second.
If this were a debate about who conservatives would ideally like to nominate, that would be one thing. But that is not where this race stands today. Republicans now face a more urgent question: Do they want a Republican in the November runoff or not? A vote for Bianco may be sincere and principled, but at this point, a vote for Hilton is the strategic vote to keep Republicans in the race. And it is not a hard vote. Hilton would also be a great Governor.
The Consequences Are Real
A Hilton-Becerra runoff would guarantee a real statewide debate about the future of California. Taxes, crime, homelessness, illegal immigration, the cost of living, energy prices, housing, schools, water, regulation, and the direction of Sacramento would all be on the table.
A Becerra-Steyer runoff would be something entirely different. It would mean Republicans, independents, and millions of Californians who want a different direction would enter November without a candidate in the race. The governor’s election would effectively become an all-Democrat conversation months before the general election.
That outcome is no longer hypothetical. The Emerson poll shows it is a real possibility, and other recent surveys confirm the same broader danger: Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton are clustered at the top. If Hilton does not make the top two, Republicans are out.
So, Does It Matter?
I voted for Steve Hilton because California desperately needs a competitive governor’s race, and because voters deserve an actual alternative to the policies that have dominated Sacramento for years. You may have preferred another Republican candidate. Many Republicans did.
But the newest statewide poll is a wake-up call. Xavier Becerra is leading. Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton are fighting for the second runoff spot. Chad Bianco remains well behind the cutoff line. The margin between a Republican advance and a Republican lockout is now razor-thin.
Republicans can ignore the warning or act on it. The Emerson poll is telling conservatives something important: if Republican voters do not consolidate, California may wake up the day after the election with no Republican candidate for governor on the November ballot.
And by then, it will be too late. If you have not yet voted, vote for Hilton. And maybe just as important — pass this along to others.
Methodology note: Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters May 27–28, 2026. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.