Analysis: Early Returns Point To Becerra Vs. Hilton And Bass Vs. Pratt
California’s first returns show major races taking shape, but millions of ballots remain to be counted.
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Election Night in California: A Snapshot, Not a Verdict
California is ridiculed, and rightly so, for our bizarre election system. We do not really have an Election Day anymore — at least not one where voters can expect final results anytime soon. Instead, we have Election Month, followed by Counting Month.
Some of these races may not be fully settled until Californians are already making Fourth of July plans.
So, as we take a quick look at some of the election highlights, remember that this is like trying to call a baseball game in the fifth or sixth inning. The score right now matters. But it is not conclusive.
Hilton And Becerra Lead, But It Is Not Called
The biggest question entering Election Day was simple: who would advance to November in the race for Governor?
At the moment, the answer appears to be Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra. Hilton currently leads with 27.8% of the vote, followed by Becerra at 25.4%. Billionaire Tom Steyer, despite spending an extraordinary amount of money on the race, trails in third at 19.6%.
But this race has not been called, and Steyer is right to wait for more results before conceding. California still has many ballots left to count, and this year the later-counted votes may be more Democratic than usual. Many liberal voters appeared to hold onto their ballots deep into the voting period, unsure which Democrat to back in what often looked like a race-to-the-bottom competition.
That said, the current numbers are still meaningful. Democrats appear to have avoided a Republican-versus-Republican runoff. Republicans, meanwhile, appear to have avoided being locked out of November altogether. If the current standings hold, California is headed toward a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican gubernatorial contest.
And it may not be just Hilton. Despite California’s dreadful top-two system — which should be repealed as soon as plausible — Republicans appear positioned to advance candidates in most of the major statewide races. The contests for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Controller, Treasurer, and Superintendent of Public Instruction are all shaping up as Democrat-versus-Republican matchups.
The major exception is Insurance Commissioner. There, Republicans appear headed for a shutout, leaving voters to choose between competing Democrats to oversee one of California’s most important regulatory offices. At a time when homeowners are facing soaring premiums, shrinking coverage options, and growing wildfire risk, that office may end up offering voters echoes rather than a choice. Sadly.
Voters Are Rejecting New Taxes
Yesterday I told you I was watching three major local tax measures. So far, all three are losing.
Contra Costa County’s Measure B sales tax increase is failing by roughly 59% to 41%. Los Angeles County’s Measure ER sales tax increase is trailing by approximately 53% to 47%. San Diego’s Measure A vacant-home tax is also losing, by roughly 58% to 42%.
If these numbers hold up, California voters will once again have shown that they are more centrist than the progressives in Sacramento and local government who keep asking them for more money. Fingers crossed here, especially on the two closer contests.
Bass Looks Weak, Pratt Looks Real
We may in fact be in store for a fun run-off in the City of the Angels. Where the Mayor is held to account.
Mayor Karen Bass is currently leading with 34.78% of the vote. (Yes, right now nearly two-thirds of voting Angelinos are giving her a failing grade.) Spencer Pratt is in second at 30.44%. Councilwoman Nithya Raman is third at 22.32%.
Bass is ahead, but these are not strong numbers for an incumbent mayor. Pratt, meanwhile, is showing that his candidacy is not just a sideshow. For the moment, he is in position to make the runoff.
There are still plenty of ballots left to count, and Raman could still close the gap. But at least right now, the race is pointing toward a Bass-Pratt runoff — with the very important caveat that California is still counting.
Another major Los Angeles result worth noting is that City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto appears to have been knocked out of the runoff entirely. She has been a recurring loser in my weekly Winners & Losers column, and for good reason. If her third-place showing holds, Los Angeles voters will have removed one of City Hall’s more embattled incumbents from the November ballot.
Most House Race Results Were Baked, Here Are Some Interesting Ones…
Several congressional races I highlighted yesterday are already producing noteworthy results.
In CA-01, Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won the special election outright, immediately adding another Republican vote to the narrowly divided House of Representatives. Of course, this November Gallagher will face Mike McGuire again in a district Prop. 50 redrew to be a safe Democratic seat.
In CA-06, independent Congressman Kevin Kiley is leading the field, while Republican Michael Stansfield currently ranks second, raising the possibility that Democrats could be locked out of November. Am I counting on it? No. Hoping for it? You bet! But never count out Democrat Richard Pan. That cat has nine lives.
In CA-11, Scott Wiener is headed for November, while Pelosi-backed Connie Chan currently holds the second runoff position but looks to be the likely second contender. We will have a lot to talk about on this one.
In CA-14, State Senator Aisha Wahab appears positioned to advance in the race to replace former Congressman Eric Swalwell.
In CA-22, Republican David Valadao is safely ahead, while progressive Randy Villegas currently leads establishment-backed Jasmeet Bains for the second runoff spot.
In CA-40, Ken Calvert has emerged particularly strong and appears headed into November with real momentum. Young Kim is the very likely general election opponent, predictably setting up a GOP-on-GOP runoff.
In CA-48, Democrats appear to have avoided a vote-splitting disaster, with San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert currently positioned to advance into a November matchup against Republican Jim Desmond.
Two State Senate GOP Contests I Am Following
Two State Senate races I flagged yesterday are also worth a quick look.
In SD-4, incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil is in trouble. Democrat Jaron Brandon leads with 39.1%, Republican Alexandra Duarte is second with 32.7%, and Alvarado-Gil is third at 28.1%. If those numbers hold, the incumbent who switched parties mid-term will not even make the November runoff.
In SD-40, firebrand Kristie Bruce-Lane is outperforming Ed Musgrove in the Republican-on-Republican fight. Democrat Mara Elliott leads with 44.1%, but Bruce-Lane is in second at 30.0%, while Musgrove trails at 25.9%. That is a strong early showing for Bruce-Lane and another sign that the grassroots wing of the California Republican Party remains a force to be reckoned with.
So, Does It Matter?
All of these results are subject to change. There are still many votes left to count, so think of this as a snapshot in time, not the final picture.
And when the dust clears, we should remember that California is still a very blue state. June may be the high-water mark for many Republican candidates. In a state with millions more Democrats than Republicans, GOP candidates for statewide office have to do almost everything right — and even then, their Democratic opponents usually need to have major problems for any of these races to come down to the wire. Think Swalwell-level problems.
But except for the Insurance Commissioner’s race, voters appear likely to have real choices this November. And while the California GOP remains challenged in a blue state, the first returns show it is still in the game as a statewide political party.
Of course, there are a ton of races I could and should have mentioned here, but one can only write so much!
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I don't like Hilton. He is too close to the enemy, he's not a born in America candidate and I don't trust him. However, on the flip side, I see Becerra as another King Gavin.