Afternoon Hot Take: Is Bay Area Public Transit In A Death Spiral?
Progressive policies emanating from the State Capitol and Bay Area cities render these systems unsustainable without massive public subsidies.
I've been here on Substack for two and a half weeks now. So, figuring out the best way to provide regular, meaningful content. On some days, I'll make my second post of the day a "Hot Take" on something happening in the news that day. Here’s my first one…
The Bay Area's transit systems are hurtling toward financial collapse. Agencies like BART, Muni, and Caltrain project deficits of $500–$800 million annually by 2026, which threatens severe cuts, including reduced BART service to every 60 minutes, no weekend service, and fewer bus routes. A contemplated 2026 ballot measure, the Connect Bay Area Act, looks to ask voters to kick in more of their money -- $440–$550 million annually in higher sales taxes. According to an article in Politico today. The article warns, "The Bay Area's big transit systems are threatening a death spiral." However, new taxes without reform.
A Regional Failure to Adapt
Ridership, which is 79% of pre-pandemic levels, defies the agencies' inability to rein in. The fares paid by riders cover only 11% of BART expenses, and riders must endure an irregular and often unsafe system. Union-scented labor expenses—pensionable pay, pensions, and overtime—absorb budgets. BART's blocking of its inspector general is a defiance of oversight. The cost-generating impact of mandates on improvements and projects, such as the $13 billion BART extension to San Jose, encourages flashy schemes at the expense of frugality in appropriations.
Reflections of Urban Public Transit Distress
This crisis is reflected elsewhere. Boston's MBTA also has a $700 million gap, with its proposed 2026 budget proposing a 7% increase in spending. Raises in fares won't cover the gap, and precarious state financing hangs over reduced service. Chicago's CTA is staring into a $770 million fiscal hole, potentially shuttering four out of eight rail lines and 74 out of 127 buses without state relief.
Is Urban Transit Worth Saving?
There is value in urban transit systems, offering alternatives to car travel, easing congestion, and providing mobility to those who don't have cars. However, the current model—fares that cover little—is not sustainable. Remote work altered commuting, yet agencies cling to old systems. A 2025 Pew poll reveals that 28% of Americans anticipate their finances will suffer over the next year, an increase from 16% in 2024, with Democrats being especially gloomy, at 47%. During lean economic times, will voters—most of whom ride transit infrequently—oppose increased taxes to rescue failing systems? Transit continues to be a fiscal sink without reforms such as increased fares, more efficient operations, or privatization. A sound, effective system is worth preserving, but not by saddling taxpayers with increasingly large subsidies.
Both Joe MUNI and BART has the huge problem of pensions and unfunded union liabilities that eats much of their budget. And both take the approach of dealing with their budget by publicly cutting service, in order to raise a ruckus that will lead to more taxes, like the upcoming "Connect the Bay Area" initiative, instead of cleaning house within. If they did that, there's less justification for more bonds and taxes than "we are cutting service cos we are broke"
The push for Public Transit and only on Progressive terms with Unionized Labor was just a matter of time before it collapsed. Realistic planning with the goal of actually getting people to work, shopping and Touristing, then SF could shine. Next they'll need to reopen Fisherman's Warf.